The race for the Nairobi Senate seat in 2027 became a head-to-head contest between two of ODM’s best-known names this week, after Winnie Odinga declared that she would seek the seat and Lang’ata MP Felix Odiwuor, popularly known as Jalang’o, said he would not step aside.
Winnie, an East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) member and the daughter of the late Raila Odinga, made her announcement on Thursday, 15 October, at the first anniversary commemoration of her father’s death in Bondo, Siaya County.
She linked her move to the possibility that the current senator, Edwin Sifuna, may seek higher office.
“Let it not be a rumor that as Edwin Sifuna searches for higher offices I see kuna space, kuna nafasi hapo Nairobi,” she said.
Jalang’o, who announced his own bid on 10 February instead of defending his Lang’ata seat, responded that her entry raised the stakes but would not change his plans. “
He described Winnie’s decision as her democratic right and called for a free and fair ODM nomination, saying that he would remain in the party and support whoever wins the ticket if he loses.
Neither candidate has secured the ODM nomination, and neither has been cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
Other aspirants, including United Opposition youth leader Ken Babu, lawyer Cecil Miller and former Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo, have also signalled interest.
Here are five ways the contest could unfold.
1. Winnie takes the ODM ticket
The most straightforward outcome is that the Odinga name carries the day. Winnie has campaigned for her father’s presidential bids in 2017 and 2022, was nominated by ODM to EALA in 2022, and has been active in the party’s internal politics, including a reported bid for a deputy party post. She would enter the nomination with the party’s founding family behind her and a strong base in Nairobi’s Luo-heavy neighbourhoods and in Kibra, where the family has long been influential.
Under this scenario, Jalang’o keeps his word and backs the winner, and ODM presents a united front. The risk is not in the nomination but afterwards: if Jalang’o’s supporters feel the contest was tilted, some of the voters he drew from outside ODM’s core could drift to rivals in the general election.
2. Jalang’o wins on the strength of his own record
The second possibility is an upset. Jalang’o won Lang’ata in 2022 on an ODM ticket by 38,948 votes to 36,836 against then-incumbent Nixon Korir of UDA, a close result that showed he could win outside ODM’s safest ground. He argues that an MP’s work of oversight and managing public resources prepares him for the Senate, and he has previously received public backing from President William Ruto, who leads UDA.
A Jalang’o victory in the nomination would be a notable defeat for the Odinga family in the capital and could expose a gap between the family’s wishes and the preferences of Nairobi’s party delegates and voters. It would also raise questions about how ODM’s relationship with the government side shapes its choices.
3. A negotiated exit before the vote
Parties often avoid bruising primaries by brokering a deal. One aspirant steps down in return for another position, a role in party leadership, or an understanding about future appointments. For Jalang’o, who gave up Lang’ata to run for the Senate, the question would be what he gets in return. For Winnie, who has other routes inside ODM and in regional politics, the calculation would be different.
Party elders would prefer this outcome, because it spares ODM a public contest between its own. But Jalang’o’s repeated insistence that he is going “to the wire” makes an early deal less likely at this stage, and the longer both camps hold their positions, the harder a quiet compromise becomes.
4. The loser leaves ODM
If the nomination is disputed, or if one camp believes it was treated unfairly, the losing candidate could seek another party’s ticket or run as an independent. That would split the ODM-leaning vote in Nairobi and help an opponent, which is the outcome party managers fear most.
This path looks least plausible for Winnie, given her family’s ties to the party. It is more conceivable for Jalang’o, who has friendly relations across the political divide, although he has publicly committed to staying in ODM and backing the winner. Any such move would also depend on how the IEBC’s timelines for party switching and nomination certificates play out.
5. Sifuna stays, and the field resets
The entire contest rests on the assumption that Sifuna moves on. He has not announced that he will leave the Senate, and he is reportedly weighing higher office. If he decides to defend the seat, both Winnie and Jalang’o would face a much harder fight, and one or both might be steered to a different contest.
The other aspirants could also alter the maths. A crowded field of Babu, Miller, Ndolo and others in the opposition and ODM could split votes among the party’s own candidates, giving an outsider a path.
What to watch
Three signals will show which path the race is taking. The first is whether Sifuna announces his plans, since the seat only opens if he moves. The second is how ODM decides to run its nomination, whether through delegates or a wider vote, because that decides which candidate has the advantage.
The third is the tone between the two camps. Public exchanges between Winnie’s and Jalang’o’s supporters would make a negotiated outcome harder, while quiet silence could signal a deal being worked out.